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Adobe Forecasts U.S. Online Sales to Surpass $100 Billion This Holiday Season

SAN JOSE, Calif.–()–Adobe (Nasdaq:ADBE) today released its online shopping predictions for
the upcoming holiday season. Based on Adobe Analytics, Adobe expects
that online sales will be $107.4 billion, an increase of 13.8 percent,
while in-store retail is expected to grow ten percent.* Cyber Monday is
expected to become the largest online shopping day in history,
generating $6.6 billion in sales, 16.5 percent growth compared to last
year. Sales on Thanksgiving Day are expected to increase 15 percent YoY
to $2.8 billion. One out of every six dollars this holiday season will
be spent between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday, leading to $19.7 billion
in sales. The most anticipated gifts include Hasbro NERF guns, Nintendo
Switch, Apple Air Pods and Sony PlayStation® VR.

While large retailers (more than $100 million in annual revenue) will
see higher order values and desktop conversion rates than smaller
retailers (less than $10 million in annual revenue), the latter are
expected to have the mobile advantage with a higher average conversion
rate of 1.9 percent by attracting more shoppers with an intent to buy.
Adobe Analytics data also forecasts that shoppers will gravitate towards
purchasing more lower-priced items online as opposed to big ticket
items. While toys and apparel saw a 39 percent and 20 percent unit
growth respectively last holiday season, jewelry sales came in low, with
a three percent decline in unit growth. These trends are expected to
continue this season.

“This year’s record-breaking online holiday shopping season is built on
the strength of the big players,” said Mickey Mericle, vice president,
Marketing and Insights at Adobe. “We predict the biggest retailers with
wide selections, easy shopping experiences and free shipping, to drive
online holiday growth this year. Still, there is opportunity for savvy
small retailers to win, specifically with mobile experiences. As revenue
growth plateaus, retailers will be competing hard for customers by
offering steep discounts and providing a seamless customer journey.”

Additional findings include:

  • Most Anticipated Gift Items: The most desired electronics this
    holiday season include Apple Air Pods, Sony PlayStation® VR as well as
    home assistants, including Amazon Echo and Google Home. Nostalgia
    reigns supreme with toys and video games, as Hasbro NERF Guns,
    Nintendo Switch and Super Mario Odyssey are expected to be among the
    top-sellers. Additionally, the top toys from 2016 are capitalizing on
    their success with updated products that are expected to perform well
    this year, including Moose’s Toys’ Shopkins and Spin Master Hatchimals.
  • Best Dates for Deals: The sharpest discounts are expected to
    occur on Black Friday, with televisions (23.7 percent), tablets (23.6
    percent), jewelry (12 percent) and appliances (17.7 percent) showing
    the largest price decreases. On Thanksgiving, shoppers can expect to
    find the best deals on computers (16 percent), sporting goods (11
    percent), apparel (15 percent) and video games/consoles (9.6 percent).
    On Cyber Monday discounts will be highest for toys at 19.1 percent.
    The Wednesday prior to Thanksgiving is predicted to offer the best
    deals for Christmas décor with average discounts of 22.7 percent.
    Furniture and bedding prices as well as pet products are expected to
    see the steepest price cuts on Giving Tuesday with 12.8 percent and
    21.7 percent respectively. Some products will likely be out of stock
    before they see major discounts. Appliances, tablets and televisions
    are most likely to be out-of-stock on Thanksgiving Day, before seeing
    the largest discounts on Black Friday.
  • Mobile Shopping: While desktop purchases are predicted to
    account for two-thirds of revenue this holiday season, mobile is
    serving as a starting point for many consumers. For the first time,
    web traffic on smartphones and tablets is predicted to be higher than
    for desktops, at 54 percent and 46 percent respectively.


Adobe leverages Adobe Sensei, Adobe’s artificial intelligence and
machine learning framework, to identify retail insights from trillions
of data points that flow through Adobe Analytics, part of Adobe
Analytics Cloud in Adobe Experience Cloud. Adobe’s retail report, the
most comprehensive set of insights and predictions of its kind in the
industry, is based on an analysis of one trillion visits to over 4,500
retail sites and 55 million SKUs. $7.50 of every $10 spent by consumers
online with the top 500 U.S. retailers go through Adobe Experience
Cloud.** Adobe Analytics measures 80 percent of online transactions at
the largest 100 U.S. web retailers.*** Companion research is based on a
survey with more than 1,100 U.S. consumers, and analysis from twelve
million social mentions between August 1, 2017 and October 11, 2017.

In 2017, Adobe built out its forecasting model for accurately predicting
and projecting actual retail spending, given major discount days have
impacted online shopping behaviors significantly. This methodology now
looks at each day as an independent estimate, ultimately eliminating the
use of constant growth assumptions, which requires Adobe to restate
total online sales numbers for specific days in 2016. For more details,
see this accompanying
blog post

Helpful Links:

About Adobe

Adobe is changing the world through digital experiences. For more
information, visit www.adobe.com.

*Based on National Retail Federation Estimates (https://nrf.com/resources/consumer-research-and-data/holiday-spending/holiday-headquarters)

**Based on the top 100 retailers in the IR 2017 top 500 eGuide

***Internet Retailer’s 2017 Top 500 eGuide, an independent source that
measures online commerce technologies (https://www.digitalcommerce360.com/product/top-500-database/)

© 2017 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All rights reserved. Adobe and the
Adobe logo are either registered trademarks or trademarks of Adobe
Systems Incorporated in the United States and/or other countries. All
other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.

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